NZ exposure — today's assessment

Fuel High
Supply Chain Med
Inflation Med
Exports Low
Currency Med
Brent Crude: $94.20 NZD/USD: 0.594 Gold: $3,218 Baltic Dry: 1,842
⚠ Iran-Israel tensions escalating — Strait of Hormuz shipping at elevated risk.

12 April 2026

Middle East

Iran increases uranium enrichment as US carrier group enters Gulf

IAEA inspectors report enrichment levels at 84% — one step below weapons grade. A second US carrier group has entered the Persian Gulf in what the Pentagon calls a defensive posture. Iran's foreign ministry warned any blockade attempt would be met with force. Strait of Hormuz transit volumes down 12% this week.

Fuel: High Inflation: Med

Global trade

US tariff package takes effect — NZ dairy and meat exporters exposed

The 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the US came into effect at midnight EST. NZ exporters face direct cost increases with limited short-term alternatives. Fonterra and Silver Fern Farms both issued statements flagging margin pressure.

Exports: High Currency: Med

Global markets

Metals diverge as China cuts steel output

Copper and aluminium are surging on supply constraints and electrification demand, while iron ore faces downward pressure from China's steel production cuts. Gold holds support on geopolitical uncertainty.

Fuel: Low Supply chain: Med

Independent analytical perspective only. Not financial, legal, or personal advice. Readers should form their own views.